Direct Covariate Evidence versus Kriging Borrowing
Abstract
Covariate-indexed design selection can use a kriging surface to prepare recommendations for future states. Validation should distinguish directly observed states from locations supported mostly through covariance. It examines the actions that change across that boundary, with local uncertainty and population weights retained. Smooth fit alone does not establish transport of the decision relationship. This focused synthesis develops an empirical comparison that preserves the terminal action, observation process, and total verification cost. Its proposed tests are prospective; no new simulation run, model-training result, or intervention effect is reported.
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