Rate Analysis when Variance Must First Be Estimated
Abstract
A favorable convergence rate may be preceded by substantial uncertainty in the variance used for allocation. Evaluation should vary pilots and include finite budgets where that uncertainty matters. It records whether competitive alternatives continue receiving observations. Complete independent terminal checks distinguish a useful learning path from precision inferred too confidently from a short pilot. This focused synthesis develops an empirical comparison that preserves the terminal action, observation process, and total verification cost. Its proposed tests are prospective; no new simulation run, model-training result, or intervention effect is reported.
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